Import substitution in the service sector as a factor for ensuring regional economic security
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31279/REFP-2026-3-299Keywords:
services, foreign trade, regional economy, import substitution, import dependence, service economyAbstract
In the current context, import substitution acts as a key factor in ensuring economic security, influencing all areas of regional development. Existing monitoring and assessment methodologies for economic security are predominantly focused on the sphere of material production, while the services sector, which accounts for more than half of the gross domestic product, remains insufficiently examined with regard to import replacement. Hence, there is a need to develop analytical tools for assessing import dependence in the services sector at the level of the constituent entities and federal districts of Russia. The aim of this study is to develop and test a system of indicators that can be incorporated into the regional economic security monitoring framework to evaluate import dependence, dynamics, and structural changes in foreign trade in services. The research draws on the provisions of the Economic Security Strategy of the Russian Federation up to 2030 and reviews scholarly approaches to the assessment of regional economic security. The empirical basis comprises official data from the Bank of Russia on foreign trade in services and statistics from the Federal State Statistics Service for the period 2022–2024. The study employs a comparative analysis of statistical data, with calculations illustrated using the Central Federal District as a case example. We propose a system of indicators for assessing regional import dependence in the services sector, which includes the share of imported services in gross regional product, coefficients of import coverage by exports and trade balance, as well as structural indicators by key types of services. Import substitution in the services sector is identified as an independent direction for ensuring the economic security of a region. The proposed toolkit is essential for assessing the vulnerability of the regional economy in the services sector and the effectiveness of import substitution measures. Therefore, this system of indicators should be integrated into the monitoring framework for the economic security of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
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